 | Introduction to the Philosophy of Probability
The Different Interpretations
Willian Silva Barros and Carlos Alberto Miraglia
Probability is indispensable to modern science, yet its meaning remains one of the most contested questions in philosophy. Does a probability describe an objective feature of the world, a long-run frequency, a logical relation between evidence and hypothesis, a causal disposition, or a rational degree of belief?
This book offers a historically informed and systematic introduction to the principal interpretations of probability. It examines the classical, frequentist, propensity, logical and subjective Bayesian traditions, together with contemporary best-system accounts of objective chance. Rather than treating these views as isolated schools, the authors compare them through explicit criteria: their treatment of single cases, reference classes, initial probabilities, evidential updating, objectivity and decision under uncertainty.
The concluding chapters develop a criterion-guided pluralism and apply it to quantum physics, statistical mechanics, population genetics, epidemiology, economics and the social sciences. Accessible without sacrificing conceptual rigour, the book provides students and researchers with a clear map of what is at stake whenever probability is used to describe the world, assess evidence or guide rational action.
August 2026
978-1-84890-516-0
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